10h00 The BIG CALL Opening Report - 26 July 2012
Good Morning, this is John Piper with the opening report, I am unable to do a report tomorrow, Next report Tuesday morning + weekend video clips
Trading in futures, options, spread and binary betting carries a high degree of risk which can lead to losses greater than the amount originally invested. As such it is not suitable for everyone and you should not risk more than you can afford to lose. Important: see 'My Trading Rules' at the foot of this article.
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We have seen impulsive declines and now we are going through a quieter period which is as we would expect from a corrective phase. I continue to look for more downside once this phase is over. Markets are also awaiting the US GDP figures tomorrow and the market reaction to these will be of interest. For example weak figures (which are likely in this environment) can be viewed negatively as it is "bad" news or positively as it may lead to more stimulation, albeit this has done pretty much zero for the economy so far but that was never the main aim.
2. UK FTSE 100
FTSE is now at 5495 down 2 points. A pretty clear count - see chart below - and it looks lie we have seen waves a-b of the correction with a c wave rally due. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.
3. The German DAX
The DAX is now at 6371 down 34 points. The DAX has seen a similar pattern but made new lows today (but NOT if we look at the 24 hour action) so again a c wave rally is possible. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).
4. The US DOW
The Dow closed yesterday at 12676 up 59 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 12671 (-5). The pattern here is not so clear as discussed in the video clip yesterday. We are now 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ
5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW
The Nikkei Dow closed at 8443 up 77 points this morning. The Nikkei is bouncing in what could be a wave iv.
6. US T-BOND
Bonds are edging higher. We remain officially 50% short of shorter dated bonds via the ETF DB X-Trackers II IBOXX Short USD Treasuries Tr Index 1C (XUTS).
7. Gold ( UK cash)
Gold moved up sharply yesterday and is close t the upper parameter now around $1610/15. We are 100% long via the ETF (PHAU) and entered when Gold was around $1560. A sustained break down may confirm a deflationary environment and, in view of all the Government action to prevent this, such an environment may prove devastating.
GBP/EUR is falling back but no change to the uptrend. The GBP/USD is back on the lower parameter.
Trading Rules - I may have a number of binary betting positions on FTSE and the Dow - these can change from long to short at irregular intervals. I also have long term long positions on Gold (ETFs) and various short ETFs on T-Bonds, FTSE and S&P.
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