Thursday, 26 July 2012

Opening Report from JohnPipersTrading.com on 26 July 2012

10h00 The BIG CALL Opening Report - 26 July 2012

Good Morning, this is John Piper with the opening report, I am unable to do a report tomorrow, Next report Tuesday morning + weekend video clips

Trading in futures, options, spread and binary betting carries a high degree of risk which can lead to losses greater than the amount originally invested. As such it is not suitable for everyone and you should not risk more than you can afford to lose. Important: see 'My Trading Rules' at the foot of this article.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST TTT

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST VIDEO CLIP

1. Introduction

We have seen impulsive declines and now we are going through a quieter period which is as we would expect from a corrective phase. I continue to look for more downside once this phase is over. Markets are also awaiting the US GDP figures tomorrow and the market reaction to these will be of interest. For example weak figures (which are likely in this environment) can be viewed negatively as it is "bad" news or positively as it may lead to more stimulation, albeit this has done pretty much zero for the economy so far but that was never the main aim.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 5495 down 2 points. A pretty clear count - see chart below - and it looks lie we have seen waves a-b of the correction with a c wave rally due. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.


3. The German DAX

The DAX is now at 6371 down 34 points. The DAX has seen a similar pattern but made new lows today (but NOT if we look at the 24 hour action) so again a c wave rally is possible. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 12676 up 59 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 12671 (-5). The pattern here is not so clear as discussed in the video clip yesterday. We are now 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW 

The Nikkei Dow closed at 8443 up 77 points this morning. The Nikkei is bouncing in what could be a wave iv.

6. US T-BOND

Bonds are edging higher. We remain officially 50% short of shorter dated bonds via the ETF DB X-Trackers II IBOXX Short USD Treasuries Tr Index 1C (XUTS).

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold moved up sharply yesterday and is close t the upper parameter now around $1610/15. We are 100% long via the ETF (PHAU) and entered when Gold was around $1560. A sustained break down may confirm a deflationary environment and, in view of all the Government action to prevent this, such an environment may prove devastating.

8. FOREX

GBP/EUR is falling back but no change to the uptrend. The GBP/USD is back on the lower parameter.

 



 

Trading Rules - I may have a number of binary betting positions on FTSE and the Dow - these can change from long to short at irregular intervals. I also have long term long positions on Gold (ETFs) and various short ETFs on T-Bonds, FTSE and S&P.

I trade a number of markets through spread betting, options and/or futures positions. t1ps.com Ltd does not believe that my articles can move the markets concerned.


If I have an open position or positions on any markets which are the subject of one of these reports at the time of publication of an article written by me, the existence of that interest and whether it is long or short will always be declared in the article in the format 'I have a long/short position in the S&P/the FTSE 100/Gold' as appropriate. This is in order to inform readers so that they may assess whether the existence of any such interest may have influenced the content of the article. Such disclosure does not constitute investment advice. The time of publication means the time at which an email containing the article is sent.

After publication of an article containing a disclosure of an open interest as above I may alter, or close the position or positions the subject of the disclosure without restriction. There are no restrictions on the opening of positions provided that any open interest is declared as above.

The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities and ETFs can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Financial Spreadbetting, futures, options, and CFD's are by definition a higher risk investment, losses from which are potentially unlimited. Before investing, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment please seek independent financial advice. JohnPipersTrading.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 3rd Floor, 3 London Wall Buildings, London, EC2M 5SY or on 0207 562 3372. Disclaimer
The information contained in this communication is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for use only by the individual named and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the named addressee you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. Rivington Street Holdings Plc and all associated companies Terms & Conditions apply.
The tips, recommendations, and suggestions given here are of necessity, general. They cannot relate to the individual circumstances of investors. Anyone considering following the recommendations contained here should seek independent advice from a Financial Services Authority authorised Stockbroker or Financial Adviser. So, while we would not wish to reduce our liability under the FSA regulatory regime, we cannot otherwise be held liable if individuals suffer losses through following tips contained on this site. The value of investments can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital although the potential returns are theoretically unlimited. The difference between the buy price and the sell price for smaller company shares can be significant. Profits from dealing in shares may be liable to tax - the level of tax and bases of reliefs from Tax are subject to change. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Financial Spreadbetting and/or Binary betting is by definition a higher risk investment, losses from which are potentially unlimited.

Rivington Street Holdings Plc - Privacy Policy - Registered Office is Henry Thomas House, 5-11 Worship Street, London, EC2A 2BH. Registered No: 02258507 (Registered in England & Wales)

 

Saturday, 21 July 2012

The Weekend Video Clip from JohnPipersTrading.com on 21 July 2012

The Weekend Video Clip - 21 July 2012

Trading in futures, options, spread and binary betting carries a high degree of risk which can lead to losses greater than the amount originally invested. As such it is not suitable for everyone and you should not risk more than you can afford to lose. Important: see 'My Trading Rules' at the foot of this article.

 Next report - Tuesday morning (daily subscribers only)

I have been asked to provide a brief summary of the video clips and here goes...

"We may have seen key peaks come in right at expiry"  

Here is the link for the video clip itself...

TODAY'S VIDEO CLIP
  
   If you want to discuss this clip with myself and fellow traders go to our forum at...
http://www.johnpiper.info/forum/


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My Trading Rules - I may have a number of binary betting positions on FTSE and the Dow - these can change from long to short at irregular intervals.
I trade a number of markets through spread betting, options and/or futures positions. t1ps.com Ltd does not believe that my articles can move the markets concerned.

If I have an open position or positions on any markets which are the subject of one of these reports at the time of publication of an article written by me, the existence of that interest and whether it is long or short will always be declared in the article in the format 'I have a long/short position in the S&P/the FTSE 100/Gold' as appropriate. This is in order to inform readers so that they may assess whether the existence of any such interest may have influenced the content of the article. Such disclosure does not constitute investment advice. The time of publication means the time at which an email containing the article is sent.

After publication of an article containing a disclosure of an open interest as above I may alter, or close the position or positions the subject of the disclosure without restriction. There are no restrictions on the opening of positions provided that any open interest is declared as above.




The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities and ETFs can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Financial Spreadbetting, futures, options, and CFD's are by definition a higher risk investment, losses from which are potentially unlimited. Before investing, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment please seek independent financial advice. JohnPipersTrading.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 3rd Floor, 3 London Wall Buildings, London, EC2M 5SY or on 0207 562 3372.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this communication is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for use only by the individual named and others authorized to receive it. If you are not the named addressee you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. The recipient should check this email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. The company accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this email. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. Rivington Street Holdings Plc and all associated companies Terms & Conditions apply.
The tips given here are of necessity, general. They cannot relate to the individual circumstances of investors. Anyone considering following the recommendations contained here should seek independent advice from a Financial Services Authority authorised Stockbroker or Financial Adviser. So, while we would not wish to reduce our liability under the FSA regulatory regime, we cannot otherwise be held liable if individuals suffer losses through following tips contained on this site. The value of investments can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital although the potential returns are theoretically unlimited. The difference between the buy price and the sell price for smaller company shares can be significant. Profits from dealing in shares may be liable to tax - the level of tax and bases of reliefs from Tax are subject to change. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Financial Spreadbetting is by definition a higher risk investment, losses from which are potentially unlimited.

Rivington Street Holdings Plc - Privacy Policy - Registered Office is Henry Thomas House, 5-11 Worship Street, London, EC2A 2BH. Registered No: 02258507 (Registered in England & Wales)


Wednesday, 11 July 2012

Economic Black Holes

I have decided to start a blog, if colleague and fellow author, among other things, Tom Winnifrith can, so can I! So here goes…

Economic Black Holes
I introduced this concept in my book Financial Cataclysm Now! (email tt101@aweber.com for a free copy) which I published in 2006 and updated earlier this year. The concept fully explains the current crisis and is very simple. During any mania, including that of the early noughties, asset prices lose touch with reality, but if you are in business you either shut up shop or you are forced to pay those prices.
The most obvious example is property development. You buy your property at an inflated price (as judged against any “rational” valuation – but no one is rational in a mania) and the bank throws lots of money at you (being as wrapped up in the mania as everyone else) and off you go. If you are lucky you get out whilst the mania is still intact (as we have seen these things have great staying power) and everyone does well out of the deal – encouraging them to go in BIGGER next time (which is how the mania builds up steam). Then the tide turns (and this happened in 2008/2008) and the black holes are uncovered and the economy lurches lower as each one implodes.
Lehman Bros is a good example being over-exposed to loans on over-valued, to the point of utter lunacy, property.  I suspect MF Global is another example with rules broken in the “good” times working out OK but not in the bad times. Of course Governments have moved quickly to do what they can to keep these black holes well covered until we get to the somewhat bumbling EuroPolitik. But these black holes are not just financial, they are also moral and ethical.
Winston Churchill is reputed to have asked a lady at a dinner party whether she would sleep with him for an enormous sum of money. She was clearly tempted at which point he reduced the sum to a trivial amount. The lady duly protested “what do you take me for?” To which Winston replied “we have already established that, now we are haggling about the price!” Step forward “Diamond” Bob – clearly not a cheap tart but equally clear that Barclays Bank has not operated to the highest moral and ethical standards whilst he was in charge!
Plus a Government that regularly fudges its own figures is hardly going to look askance at a bank doing the same – especially when it’s many millions of £/$s cheaper than a bailout!

All the best,

JOHN
send an email to jptt@aweber.com for free reports
web site: www.johnpiper.info

Tuesday, 10 July 2012